Pragmatism and Flexibility towards Changing Circumstances: China also believes in the concept of “Quan bian” which refers to absolute flexibility and sensitivity to changing relative capabilities. This is reflected in its strategy towards weaker and powerful nations. China uses assertiveness to deal with weaker countries while resorting to tactics of seeming compliance, delay and buying time when dealing with stronger adversaries presumably to gradually increase its capabilities to deal with them. It will be willing to compromise, even if at a disadvantage if it recognizes the potential of long term gains in bilateral relations. The settling of its border dispute with Russia is one such case study.

Inferences for the United States

First, China’s ambitions are, evidently, to achieve global influence and assume leadership to control the flow of major events. China will, with time, begin to consistently challenge the United States directly across multiple domains. It will be important for the United States to continue playing an active global role, despite its current domestic distractions, and challenge China consistently across domains at every step.

Second, China will continue to use minimal force from time to time as part of its assertive strategy, in particular in its neighborhood, towards, what it perceives, as weaker nations including friendly regional partners of the United States as is evident currently along the LAC with India, and in the SCS against Vietnam and Philippines and the ECS against Japan. The regional partners do not threaten U.S. strategic interests in any manner and hence equipping them with the capabilities they require to address the threats posed by an assertive China would, in turn, enable the United States to position itself more effectively in challenging China’s global ambitions.

Third, China usually looks for opportune moments to seek retribution from adversaries. In the recent past, it has been forced to make concessions in the phased trade deal with the United States amidst a prolonged trade standoff. The prolonged election battle, the uncertainty over a smooth political transition and the heavy casualties caused by the pandemic and its impact on the economy could see the United States distracted with domestic challenges in the first half in 2021. China could attempt to accentuate the employment challenges, posed by the pandemic in the United States, by its unwillingness to implement the phased trade deal either by importing more U.S. goods or by putting significant pressure on U.S. companies doing business in China.

Dr. Venkateswaran Lokanathan is a Global Fellow with the Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson Centre for International Scholars, Washington DC. He has served previously in India’s National Security Council Secretariat. Opinions in this article are personal. He can be contacted at [email protected]

Image: Reuters