AMLO took an exceptionally provocative shot when, in early April, he mentioned the assassination of a leftist presidential candidate in August 2023, shortly before the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election. He insinuated that Noboa might have been somehow responsible, thus adding to the friction between the two governments ahead of Noboa’s decision to enter the embassy. Noboa seems likely to shrug off for now the international criticism his decision has provoked. His cavalier view of an established norm aligns with the approach of populist presidents in the region, both of the left and right. 

This fight may go in for a while as AMLO, who is given to rancorous feuding, is likely to raise his grievance repeatedly between now and the end of his term in office on December 1. Obviously, Ecuador’s international prestige has taken a blow from an ill-advised act. But having scolded it, the world will move on, trusting that this breach of international law is an isolated incident. It is conceivable that Noboa will, at some point, consider a gesture to ease the tensions arising from this affair. However, internally, at least, this misstep is not likely to bruise him much, given that the public is focused on insecurity and corruption.

Are Mexico’s Hands Clean?

To the extent that those granted asylum by a foreign embassy are not merely political opponents of a governing regime but are also former senior officials convicted of massive corruption, states that grant asylum, under those circumstances may be contributing to weakening the institution of diplomatic asylum. In a region where old-style military coups have primarily faded away but in which high-level corruption, often fueled by drug trafficking, is becoming a severe threat to democratic governance, Mexico’s claims of outrage ring a little hollow. 

Ecuador’s entry into the Mexican embassy is not the only recent example in which a state has ignored the principle of the inviolability of diplomatic premises, as was seen on April 1 when Israel bombed an Iranian consular facility in Damascus, killing two senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Obviously, the circumstances of the Damascus attack are vastly different from those seen in Quito. But both incidents put dents in an international norm which has served the world’s nations well.

Richard M. Sanders is a Senior Fellow, Western Hemisphere at the Center for the National Interest. A former member of the Senior Foreign Service of the U.S. Department of State, he served at embassies throughout Latin America and in positions in Washington dealing with the region.

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