Washington must also work with Japan to bolster Taiwan’s defense. The United States should hold a series of high-level discussions with Tokyo focusing on their National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy so that they regard the defense of Taiwan as critical to their national security. Japan’s increased appreciation of Taiwan’s role in its national defense is a strong legacy of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Taiwan should also be able to rely on Australia to enhance deterrence, as evidenced by the AUKUS agreement, along with the possible participation of the United Kingdom and France, who have both increased their presence in the Taiwan Strait.

Without question, Beijing’s military capabilities have improved alongside Xi’s increased rhetorical boldness relative to prior Chinese leaders. Thus, the force with which the United States and its allies could defend Taiwan from an invasion should be enhanced to make deterrence viable. Many analysts believe Beijing advances a narrative of confidence and greater readiness for an invasion as a psychological warfare tool against Taiwan and Washington. Washington must take the threat seriously and prepare for Taiwan’s defense, but not be fatalistic about its immediacy.

The military and diplomatic difficulty Moscow has experienced following the invasion of Ukraine is certainly monitored in detail in Beijing. The PLA has exercised with the Russian military and has learned from the experience Moscow has gained—which is more current than China’s last military action, their six-week punitive war with Vietnam in 1979.

An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would present more significant challenges than Moscow invading a neighbor. Beijing would also take note of the civilian involvement in the defense of Ukraine, as well as the substantial international support in the form of sanctions, military assistance, and political damage experienced by Putin.

Washington’s policy in Asia needs to be predictable and reliable in the age of great power competition. Maintaining Taiwan’s status is imperative for Tokyo and Seoul to have confidence in America as an effective security partner in the Indo-Pacific. In this pursuit, Washington must deter rather than tempt an aggressive move by Xi to unite a democratic Taiwan with a communist China.

David A. Merkel served as deputy assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs at the State Department, as director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council, and as deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury.

Image: Reuters.