In such circumstances, as it develops its own policy, Moscow should never forget that the United States still retains considerable potential to do harm to Russia. That does not mean Washington is seeking confrontation.  It is not, especially given the other challenges it is facing around the globe.  Thus, even if tension will likely remain high for some time whatever the outcome in Ukraine, Russia still has an opportunity to avoid a determined U.S. effort at containment.

Thomas E. Graham is a managing director at Kissinger Associates, Inc., where he focuses on Russian and Eurasian affairs.  He was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007 and Director for Russian Affairs on that staff from 2002 to 2004.  From 2001 to 2002, he served as the Associate Director of the Policy Planning Staff of the Department of State.  From 1998 to 2001, Mr. Graham was a senior associate in the Russia/Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  From 1984 to 1998, he was a Foreign Service Officer and served twice in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. 

[1] See "Summary of North American Chapter" in Paula Dobriansky, Andrzej Olechowski, Yukio Satoh, and Igor Yurgens, Engaging Russia: A Return to Containment?, The Trilateral Commission 2013/2014 Task Force Report, May 15, 2014, pp. 12-20, which leans heavily towards containment as the appropriate U.S. Russia policy.

[2] See "Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu before Bilateral Meeting," March 3, 2014, available at http://m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/03/remarks-president-ob....

[3] See Remarks of President Barack Obama, Graduation Ceremony, West Point, New York, May 28, 2014, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/05/28/remarks-president-....

[4] Ibid.

[5] See Putin's remarks at the Valdai International Discussion Club, September 19, 2013, from which the quoted material is drawn, available at http://news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/19243.

[6] See "Obrashcheniye Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii," March 18, 2014, available at http://news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/20603.

[7] See United States Department of State, "Ukraine and Russia Sanctions,” at http://m.state.gov/mc62304.htm.

[8] See “Remarks by President Obama to the People of Estonia,” September 3, 2014, www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/03/remarks-president-obama-people-estonia.

[9] See NATO Secretary General Rasmussen's monthly press conference, May 19, 2014, available at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_109980.htm.

[10] “Wales Summit Declaration,” www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm.

[11] The text of the Act is available at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_25468.htm.

[12] See the Wales Summit Declaration.

[13] See the Missile Defense Agency's discussion of the threat, at http://www.mda.mil/system/threat.html.

[14] “FACT SHEET: NATO and U.S. Efforts in Support of NATO Partners, Including Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia,” www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/05/fact-sheet-nato-and-us-efforts-support-nato-partners-including-ukraine-m.

[15] See the International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2013 (London: Routledge, 2013), pp. 207-8.

[16] See Slobodan Lekic, "Despite Cuts, NATO Still Accounts for Most of the World's Military Spending," Stars and Stripes, February 25, 2014. European NATO members spend more than three times more than Russia does.

[17] See the European Commission on EU-Russia energy relations at http://ec.europa.eu/energy/international/bilateral_cooperation/russia/russia_en.htm. Dependence varies greatly by country. The most vulnerable are the Baltic states, which rely entirely on Russia for their gas. Germany gets over 35 percent of its gas from Russia. See "Conscious Uncoupling," The Economist, April 5, 2014, available at http://ec.europa.eu/energy/international/bilateral_cooperation/russia/russia_en.htm.

[18] Putin said earlier this year that oil accounts for $191-194 billion in revenue, and that gas constitutes $28 billion. See PBK, April 17, 2014, available at http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20140417140241.shtml.

[19] See "Conscious Uncoupling."

[20] See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Weekly (for the week ending May 28, 2014), May 29, 2014.

[21] See Putin's remarks at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, May 23, 2014. See also Alexei Anishchuk, "As Putin Looks East, China and Russia Sign $400-billion Gas Deal," Reuters, May 21, 2014.

[22] See, for example, "The Politics Behind Russia-China's Gas Deal,” Channel NewsAsia, June 1, 2014, available at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/the-politics-behind/1131860.html.