Since strategy and policy are oriented toward not only the present, but also to the foreseeable future, U.S. assessments of China’s trajectory are critical in understanding the tools—economic, technological, and otherwise—at the disposal of Beijing’s top officials in the years to come. Moreover, because China is large, complex, and multidimensional, aspects of its trajectory often appear contradictory.

On October 29, the Center for the National Interest hosted an expert panel to share their perspectives on China's trajectory over the next 5-10 years.

—Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a leading voice on U.S. innovation policy, including as co-chair of the Obama administration’s China-U.S. Innovation Policy Experts Group, a Trump administration appointee to the G7 Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence and a Biden administration appointee to the Export-Import Bank Council on China Competition. He is the author of many books and reports on innovation and innovation policy, including ITIF’s China Is Rapidly Becoming a Leading Innovator in Advanced Industries (September 2024).

—Derek Scissors, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is Chief Economist for China Beige Book and author of AEI’s online China Global Investment Tracker, a public database of China’s outbound investment and construction. A top expert on China’s economy, he was previously a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, chief economist at Intelligence Research, Ltd., London, and a commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He has taught economics at George Washington University and at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University.

Isaac Stone Fish, CEO and founder of Strategy Risks, moderated the meeting.

Image: Shutterstock.com.