Russian dependence on China to resupply critical components reveals another glaring risk of continuing to fuel the war effort in Ukraine. In terms of sanctions, Russia has found new customers, such as China, for its discounted oil which, partially thanks to Western policies, has yielded record profits. Russia is currently making more money from oil sales than it did before sanctions were imposed. Furthermore, while the United States and its partners have successfully isolated Russia from the West, Russia is successfully competing for influence in the Global South, especially in Africa, as is China. Meanwhile, Western democracies' strategic postures are more vulnerable to political upheaval from surging prices and an impending global recession. 

The good news is that Russia’s poor military performance in Ukraine shows that it does not pose a credible military threat to NATO, regardless of the outcome. Furthermore, Russia’s minuscule gains have come at an exceedingly high cost and are unlikely to embolden China to move militarily on Taiwan. Unlike Russia’s declining power and influence, which in Moscow’s view narrowed the window of opportunity to limit NATO’s presence on its borders, China is on the rise and its regional influence is growing rapidly. Therefore, it is in no hurry to risk upsetting this favorable trajectory.

Dissuading Ukraine from its morally sound war aims in favor of negotiating with a bully is distasteful, but it is a far better outcome than continued instability and a united authoritarian bloc arrayed against the West. This is an interest-based, and not an ethics-based, assessment. Although as political theorist David Polansky noted recently, “judgments made with a sober eye to one’s own interests were more likely to produce just and decent outcomes than those made out of a sense of wounded justice due to the more limited character of the former.” 

For this reason, the United States, as the de-facto leader of the West, needs to provide its citizens, the Ukrainian people, and the rest of the world affected by the war with a sober evaluation of the risks and costs of the war in Ukraine. A clear-eyed assessment suggests that the United States should avoid fomenting a Sino-Russian alliance just because it feels better to punish Russia and support Ukraine rather than think strategically and make difficult choices. 

Jeremiah Rozman has a Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Virginia with a focus on strategic/security studies, counter-terrorism, conflict resolution and asymmetric warfare. His regional expertise is in the Middle East and Russia. From 2018-2021 he worked as the National Security Analyst for the Association of the U.S. Army. He is currently a Lieutenant in the U.S. Army. The views expressed are his own.

Image: Reuters.