Shota Dighmelashvili, the leader of the pro-European “Shame Movement” and the main organizer of recent protests, told us that he has no illusions about the GD’s intentions. “They are deliberately sabotaging the Georgian European perspective. Ivanishvili will never cross a line drawn by the Kremlin and will not endanger his financial interests in Russia.” Samadashvili, on the other hand, believes that the government still has a final chance to swing decisively to the West, although it is more likely that it will do little, and then try to blame the failure of European integration on the opposition, NGOs, or Saakashvili’s allies in the Ukrainian government.

Whether or not Georgia succeeds when its EU candidacy application is reassessed in the fall of 2023 will have momentous consequences for the South Caucasian republic’s politics and civilizational aspirations. The Georgian public is uncompromising and impatient for progress on EU membership. Success in 2023 could solidify the Georgian Dream’s hold on Georgian politics, for better or worse. Failure could spark a genuine revolution in a country that has experienced more popular revolts than constitutional transfers of power. Many speak about a possible coming of a “Yanukovych moment” for the current rulers of Georgia, comparing the GD to Ukraine’s erstwhile president, who turned his back on the EU under Russian pressure, only to be ousted by a popular uprising. Government officials, meanwhile, insist that the opposition, unable to win through electoral means for the past decade, is trying to achieve power through street protests. One way or another, Brussels, Washington, and Moscow would do well to watch Georgia closely in 2023.

Wiktor Babinski is a graduate student at Yale University and senior researcher at the Hoover Institution.

Maciej Smigaj is a journalist at Newsweek Polska.

Image: Reuters.