Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s election gamble is a prelude to his longstanding goal of making Japan a “normal” country on defense issues. However, amid domestic and foreign wariness, the Japanese economy tanking and more potential difficulties in Okinawa, Washington’s hopes for a reinvigorated ally might prove premature.

According to the latest opinion polls, Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set for a landslide victory in Sunday’s general election, with predictions it will secure 300 seats in the 475-seat lower house. With the support of partner New Komeito, the ruling coalition may even retain a two-thirds “super majority” that enables the lower house to override the upper house, giving the conservative prime minister a strong hand in pushing through economic and security reforms.

Despite the nation’s recent slide back into recession, Abe’s gamble in calling a poll two years before it was officially due should extend his political life to at least September 2018. This means the next U.S. president will know exactly what to expect from Tokyo, a rare situation given the past decade’s revolving door of Japanese leaders.

Abe’s desire to restore Japan’s “honor” and remove the restrictions of a pacifist constitution on the nation’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) has been a consistent theme of his political career. This was crowned by July’s cabinet decision to try and amend the laws to enable the exercise of a limited right of collective self-defense, which would effectively allow the SDF to actively support U.S. forces and other allies in overseas conflicts.

Under Article 9 of Japan’s war-renouncing constitution, the nation pledges to “forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes” as well as not maintaining any “land, sea and air forces” or other war potential.

Despite the ban, Japan’s defense budget compares with Germany’s and the nation maintains one of the world’s largest navies in one of the world’s most dangerous regions, with trouble spots including the Korean Peninsula and East China Sea. Should Japan become drawn into a conflict, the United States would be obliged to defend its ally under a bilateral security treaty.

Political machinations

Yet despite support from the United States and its allies for Japan’s increased engagement in regional security, Abe’s political machinations have ironically meant another delay in the process.

In September, the Abe administration decided to postpone defense bills, including a revised SDF law, to 2015 with the aim of avoiding a political backlash from voters in upcoming national and local elections. Abe’s Buddhist coalition partner, New Komeito, has reportedly called for any collective self-defense moves to be limited to waters around Japan, and both parties have preferred to thrash out their differences behind closed doors.

In the wake of December’s snap election, Japan’s government announced a delay in finalizing the U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines, the first such proposed revision in nearly 20 years. According to media reports, Tokyo now hopes to have the guidelines completed by around May 2015, months after the previous year-end 2014 target.

According to October’s interim report released by Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the two nations are seeking “a more expansive partnership [that] would require enhanced capabilities and greater shared responsibilities” in the planned revisions to the 1997 guidelines.

The guidelines are set to encompass a range of measures, from enhanced intelligence gathering, additional training and exercises to air and missile defense and maritime security, cybersecurity and defense equipment and technology cooperation. They will also detail how Washington would cooperate with Tokyo in the event of an armed attack against Japan, and also “against a country that is in close relationship with Japan where Japan’s use of force is permitted under its constitution,” as per July’s move on collective self-defense.

"These revised guidelines will capture the greater scope of our alliance cooperation, reflecting its more global nature," a senior U.S. State Department official told Reuters.

"By clearly describing how the United States and Japan will operate in each of these areas during peacetime, during low-level gray zone provocations or during an armed attack, the revised guidelines will provide the policy direction for a stronger alliance, more capable of deterring threats and contributing to global security," the official said.

According to Japan’s Kyodo News, Abe reportedly apologized to U.S. President Barack Obama for the delayed defense guidelines at November’s G20 summit meeting in Australia, citing the potential influence on nationwide local elections set for April.

Indicating the political difficulties for Abe, a recent Kyodo news poll found 53 percent of respondents did not support the new security policy, including reinterpreting the constitution to allow Japan to defend allies under armed attack even if the nation itself is not threatened.

Historical issues

Abe’s defense moves are seen as reducing the pressure on the much-hyped U.S. “pivot” to Asia, potentially leading to Japan sharing a greater proportion of the cost of regional security under the U.S. umbrella, while also helping to counterbalance an increasingly assertive China.

Responding to the proposed revisions to the U.S.-Japan defense guidelines, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman warned: "The Japan-U.S. alliance is a bilateral arrangement set up under specific historical conditions. It should not exceed its bilateral scope and should not harm the interests of third parties, including China.”

China and South Korea have also condemned Japanese lawmakers for visiting Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, which honors the nation’s war dead including Class A war criminals, as well as any signs of revisionism over Japan’s actions in the Second World War. According to the Economist, Abe spent 40 minutes discussing the so-called “comfort women” issue with South Korean President Park Geun-hye during the recent G20 summit meeting in Australia, highlighting the grip that historical controversies maintain over present-day ties.

Friction between the East Asian heavyweights has made Washington nervous about being dragged into a regional conflict, with some speculating that the relationship between Abe and Obama has become frayed.

Commenting during a recent visit to Tokyo, Dartmouth College associate professor Jennifer Lind said Washington had shown concerns over its “most important alliance,” despite close alignment over security interests.

“The Abe government’s handling of history issues has been vexing: denials of past atrocities have alienated Japan from other partners, and created problems and disputes that drain energy and attention that are much needed elsewhere. Also Washington is worried about Japan keeping its cool over the Senkakus, to prevent any possible escalation (and prevent a war that the U.S. will have to fight),” she said.

On the Japanese side, Lind said she had detected “a sense of uncertainty” among Japanese leaders concerning the U.S. security guarantee.

“Japan is both powerful and feels threatened, unlike other states in the region which are weak and/or likely to hedge or to bandwagon with China,” she said.

“In terms of shared interest, the alliance has literally never been stronger. But the Japanese leaders I meet don’t seem to see it this way - they seem wary of the U.S. commitment.”

Okinawa setback

Okinawa also remains troublesome for both governments, with November’s election of “firebrand” governor Takeshi Onaga potentially further frustrating a deal over the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. Onaga has vowed to halt construction of a new Marine air base at Henoko to replace Futenma, which is located in a densely populated city and has long been slated for closure.

According to Voice of America though, plans to shut Futenma by 2019 in favor of the new base, which is located in a relatively remote location, may now be further postponed to at least 2022.

“Anything that makes the Futenma relocation more challenging is a strain on the alliance,” Lind said. “In the never-ending story of Futenma, it’s another setback that Tokyo will need to figure out how to solve - but the Japanese government is totally committed to making this happen.”

Despite the anxiety of Japanese leaders over Washington’s commitment to defending its ally, Lind reiterates that the security alliance has “never been stronger.” This is despite changing personalities, including the prospect of a new U.S. president in 2016.

“According to the prevailing U.S. grand strategy of global leadership, alliance with Japan is a vital asset. There are no mainstream political elites who want to change the U.S. grand strategy. Thus any likely U.S. president will value and seek to strengthen the alliance with Japan,” she said.

“Some individual presidents will have a better or worse rapport with individual Japanese leaders. But the fundamentals will be there, regardless of if it’s Hillary or Mitt or whomever descending the steps of Air Force One in Tokyo…In coming decades, China poses a challenge to the liberal, U.S.-led order, and Japan is America's strongest and most important partner to help with this challenge.”

The same holds true for Japanese leaders. Narushige Michishita, a professor at Japan’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, says Abe has deliberately downplayed the defense issue in the upcoming poll due to the nation’s “isolationist” tendencies, but the debate will resurface in 2015.