The war in Ukraine will end in the defeat of Russia, burying any further attempts to resurrect the old Russian empire and pull Europe back into the past.

When Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and was stopped on the road to Kyiv by a successful Ukrainian defense, a new process of Russian nation-building began. The longer Ukraine holds on, the more the Russian governing elite must reimagine their Russian identity by parting ways with Russian imperialism and the idea that Ukrainians and Belarussians belong to Russia.

Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, reportedly once said that Vladimir Putin only has three advisers: ”Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, and Catherine the Great.“ By comparing himself to Peter the Great, Putin highlighted his intent: He seeks to reclaim what he perceives as historic Russian territories. Reflecting on the 18th-century Northern War against Sweden, Putin underlined Peter's campaign as a reclamation of inherent Russian lands, not a conquest of foreign soil.

In 2021, Putin authored a provocative essay clarifying his intentions toward Ukraine, emphasizing that Russians and Ukrainians are fundamentally "one people." This sentiment isn't new. In 2008, he even audaciously claimed to then-US President George W. Bush that Ukraine wasn't a real country. Like the Russian tsars and Stalin, Putin perceives Ukrainian statehood and national identity as threats to Russia's imperial goals.

For Ukraine, this isn't just territorial; it's existential.

Ukrainians will fight as long as they have people willing to fight. Meanwhile, Putin will continue to hope that Republican isolationism and traditional anti-war sentiment among Democrats both continue to grow in the U.S. and that the re-election of Donald Trump will further shift US support away from Ukraine. There is also potential that Putin is hoping that if he holds out long enough, China may open a second front with Taiwan to break the support of the West for Ukraine, or that the United States becomes mired in a new war in the Middle East.

Considering the current military impasse, with only minor gains by Ukraine over the past year, there are limited options for a resolution. One argument is that if Ukraine cedes territory, it should gain immediate NATO membership to deter further Russian aggression. But given Russia's evident genocidal intent in this conflict, this proposal is implausible, nor would Russia ever consider negotiating for Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

Thus, the only tenable way to permanently end the war is clear: A definitive Ukrainian victory, compelling Russia to renounce its imperial ambitions and join the global community as a new, peaceful entity. And the best chance the Ukraine people have at winning is to give the Ukrainian nation what they need now; the longer Biden’s drip-drip weapons policy continues, the longer the war will drag on.

In their ongoing counteroffensive, The Ukrainian Armed Forces must advance an additional 10–15 km (7–10 miles) so that they can position their artillery to target Russia’s vital east-west transportation corridors, which are essential for the combat capability of its military. If Russia's supply lines in the south are compromised, Ukraine will then push further south towards the Sea of Azov and initiate crippling strikes on the Kerch bridge, isolating Russian forces in Crimea.

Appearances to the contrary notwithstanding, Ukraine's strategy of wearing down Russian troops with sustained attacks and destroying their ability to fight plays to Ukraine’s strengths.

The Ukrainians know what they are doing and what it will take to defeat Russia. The counteroffensive will continue into the winter, and with the arrival of new weapon systems such as F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS missiles, the war will continue to trend in Ukraine’s favor on the battlefield if the West holds firm in its support of Ukraine.

If Ukraine doesn't succeed now, the West will face much higher costs in the future. This could entail the loss of American and European lives if Russia prevails and advances towards the Baltics and Poland.

To quote Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter, “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire." Russia's geopolitical ambitions inevitably involve subjugating Ukraine, regardless of who sits in Moscow.

Russian territorial gains in Ukraine have consistently precipitated further aggression. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 led to seizures in eastern Ukraine, culminating in an ambitious bid to capture all of Ukraine in 2022. If a ceasefire is established, history suggests Russia will merely bide its time, rebuild its depleted forces, and renew its attempts to obliterate Ukraine.

Ensuring Russia cannot erase Ukraine from the world map will require the Western world to be united for as long as it takes, as Russia will keep coming back for more until it is stopped firmly in its tracks. In this war, for the sake of peace, the Russian empire's aspirations must finally be laid to rest on Ukrainian soil. Ukraine will prevail, the dream of an imperial Russia will collapse – and a new Russian identity will emerge in its wake.

David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He can be found on X @DVKirichenko.

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