Summary and Key Points: Former President Donald Trump's felony conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a hush-money payment may complicate his campaign, but it has energized his base, leading to a surge in donations.

Trump raised nearly $53 million after the verdict, narrowing Biden's fundraising lead. Polls show a tight race, with Trump leading in key swing states but facing potential setbacks as 10% of Republican voters may be less likely to support him post-verdict.

Bottomline: However, Trump faces a big challenge in the entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent candidate, which could further impact the election dynamics.

Trump vs. Biden 2024: The Impact of Trump's Conviction and Kennedy's Candidacy

Former President Donald Trump's felony conviction in New York on charges of falsifying business records to cover up a hush-money payment to an adult film star could complicate his campaign even if he isn't sent to prison. However, the outcome in New York, which the former president claimed was "rigged" and "unfair," fired up his base, which quickly donated to his campaign.

Last week, Trump announced raising nearly $53 million almost immediately after receiving the guilty verdict, while his campaign added another $12 million on Thursday at a tech fundraiser in deeply liberal San Francisco. The Trump campaign had largely failed to raise anywhere near the money as that of the Biden campaign this year, while the former president's legal issues have kept him sidelined and off the campaign trail.

The race remains extremely tight with just about five months until Election Day.

A Fox News poll released late Thursday found that Trump is now leading Biden by five points in two key swing states – Nevada and Arizona – with the former president seeing a 50 to 45% lead in the former, and 51 to 46% in the latter. Both states went for Mr. Biden in 2020 but were part of Mr. Trump's 2016 path to victory.

Trump's recent conviction has failed to sway voters in either state much, but a recent poll conducted by The New York Times /Siena College suggested that the verdict may matter at least a bit. Trump's lead over Biden slipped from 3 points to just 1 point nationally. That poll re-canvassed 2,000 potential voters.

Potentially more worrisome for the former president is that a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last Friday found that 10% of Republican voters said they'd be less likely to cast their vote for Trump following the verdict. Likewise, a Morning Consult poll found that President Biden saw an increase of 3 points, up to 45% nationally, while support for former President Trump stayed steady at 44%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – A Bigger Spoiler for Trump or Biden?

Perhaps the biggest wildcard in the 2024 election may be Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who could have a serious impact on some key battleground states. Another Fox News poll released this week, showed that Trump would lose 10% of the vote in Virginia to the son of the late New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, compared to just 7% from Biden.

In the Old Dominion State, Biden currently maintains a three-point edge over Trump – 51% to 48% – so a Kennedy ticket further impacts the former president's chances there. Though Virginia has been historically considered a swing state, it has gone for the Democrats since 2008.

Kennedy, who attempted a run as a Democrat before entering the race as an independent, could also help Biden in other key swing states, notably Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – states that helped propel Trump to victory in 2016, but went for Biden four years later.

It was just last month that GOP strategist Karl Rove warned that Kennedy could steal the "wacko" voters from Trump – signaling just how close the race is this time around.

Conclusions

The recent verdict may have helped Trump raise some much-needed cash, and it certainly motivated the base. Trump can't afford to lose any significant numbers of Republicans, while Kennedy could serve as an option for independents who don't like either option.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].