Summary and Key Points: Russian tank losses in Ukraine remain debated, with estimates ranging from 3,000 to 8,000. The General Staff of Ukraine claims even higher numbers, including 15,000 APCs and 14,000 artillery systems. Independent sources like IISS and Oryx report over 3,000 visually-confirmed Russian tank losses.

-Despite heavy losses, Russia has managed to replace many tanks with older models. The Kremlin's ability to sustain these losses remains uncertain, though domestic tank production has increased significantly to replenish forces.

Russian Tank Losses in Ukraine: Over 3,000 Confirmed, Actual Numbers Higher

How many tanks have Russian forces lost in Ukraine since the Kremlin launched its unprovoked invasion in late February 2022?

The actual numbers remain a point of debate. It was this past February, just before the two-year milestone of fighting that Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service and the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) claimed that Moscow had lost more than 8,000 armored fighting vehicles – including tanks and armored personnel carriers.

At the same time, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces estimated the losses to be even higher, reaching as high as 12,000. Western analysts believed Kyiv's figures to be on the high side, but this week, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense claimed that Russia has nearly 8,000 tanks along with more than 15,000 APCs and approximately 14,000 artillery systems.

The Kremlin has not confirmed the figures but did claim that Ukraine had lost a total of 16,374 tanks and other armored vehicles since the start of the war. The figure is notable as it is believed to be greater than the number of vehicles Kyiv has ever operated, including those supplied by the West.

Moreover, neither Moscow nor Kyiv regularly offers figures for their own losses – but instead tout the tallies of those vehicles it has destroyed.

At Least 3,000 Tanks Destroyed – Likely Many More

IISS had estimated earlier this year that Russia had still lost more than 3,000 tanks – a figure that is notable as it is greater than the number of tanks the Kremlin had in operational services before the start of the war. The Dutch open-source intelligence analyst firm Oryx, which has tracked losses in Ukraine since the start of the conflict, has reported that the Russian military has lost at least 3,139 tanks. That count only includes visually-verified and confirmed losses – so the actual losses could be far higher.

As has been previously reported by The National Interest, Moscow has refurbished older tanks and sent them to the front lines.

This has included less capable tanks including the T-80, and platforms well past their prime such as the T-62 and T-54/55 series tanks. The shortage of tanks in Russia has been so notable that in the annual Victory Day Parade in Moscow, just a sole World War II-era T-34 medium tank was in attendance for the second year in a row. It has been speculated that in addition to a lack of tanks that could be sparred for the parade, the Russian Army has too few tank crews to take part in the parades.

"The most experienced tank crews were committed to the fight in the very few weeks of the full-scale war, leaving behind new recruits with few trainers to instruct them," Newsweek reported on Wednesday.

Can the Kremlin Sustain the Tank Losses?

Despite Western sanctions, Russia has actually done a good job of managing to replace the losses – albeit with less capable old tanks and other platforms. Moreover, the British Minister of Defence has estimated that Moscow could produce around 100 modern main battle tanks monthly to replenish its forces.

It was this past February that Russian President Vladimir Putin said that domestic tank production had increased fivefold, and efforts were made to further boost the manufacturing capability.

However, even with the low-end estimates, Russia has been losing around 110 tanks monthly – and likely the losses are higher. Experts have repeatedly questioned how long Russia can sustain such losses, but throughout history, it should be remembered that Russia has defied the estimates of how long it can continue to fight. Its strength has been to draw from its deep reserves.

The final consideration is what shape the Russian military will be when the fighting finally ends. It was a year ago that analysts speculated the Kremlin would need at least a decade to recover from the war, while more recent estimates suggest it could be as a little as five years as Russia is likely to stay on a wartime economy even when the dust settles.

Yet, as the fighting drags on, it may be anyone's guess whether Russia can ever truly recover.

Author Experience and Expertise: Defense Expert Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

All images are Creative Commons. 

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