On August 7, numerous outlets reported that the Ukrainians had launched an attack on Russia’s Kursk province. The Russian region shares a border with Ukraine. It is also just north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

After two days, Ukrainian forces ventured up to thirty-five kilometers beyond the Russian border into the Kursk Oblast. Caught unawares by the Ukrainian incursion, the Russians have now declared a state of emergency. Dozens of residents in Kursk province called on their government to intervene, and the Russian military redirected troops and equipment to the region. On August 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that they had “thwarted” the Ukrainian assault, though fighting appears to continue approximately six miles within Russian territory. 

Why did Ukraine launch the surprise attack? What will unfold from these developments? How will the Ukrainian attack on Kursk impact the Russo-Ukraine war? Analysts have had many competing theories.

First, the attack may have been conducted to expose Russian weaknesses. Over the past two and a half years, several countries have warned about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. These critics were skeptical of Ukraine’s ability to survive when the Russian invasion began. Then, when Ukraine demonstrated that it could withstand the Russian invasion, the critics argued that Ukraine should not be allowed to strike Russian military targets or other strategic Russian areas. Such an action would trigger international escalation, so the argument went.

Recent developments in Kursk, however, show that this is not the case. As Ukrainian forces carry out strikes within Russian territory, many Western governments have not condemned the attacks. The revelation of further weaknesses in Russia’s military capabilities could embolden Ukraine to strike within Russia more freely. 

Meanwhile, others argue that the Kursk attack is a strategic distraction. Over the past few months, Kyiv has made no significant breakthroughs in southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to fortify their positions in the occupied regions. Thus, there is reason to believe that Ukraine is forcing Russia to redirect some of its forces and equipment to Kursk. In this case, Ukrainian troops on the main front may have an opportunity to advance.

Energy may have factored into the decision to attack Kursk. As Ukrainian forces entered the province, they captured a natural gas transit hub in Sudzha. The station is an important source of energy for the European continent. However, it is unclear what sort of leverage this provides. Disrupting a European gas supply would result in heightened gas prices for the European energy market.

Finally, some analysts predict that Kyiv authorized the attack to gain leverage over Moscow. Currently, Russia controls one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory. It has fortified its position in southern and eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, it has illegally occupied parts of the Donbas as well as Crimea since the spring of 2014.

With the growing uncertainty of the political landscape in the West and increased pressure to enter peace negotiations with Russia, Ukraine may seek to establish control over Russian territory, which it will use as a bargaining chip in exchange for land now occupied by Russia. Several European countries will hold or have already held elections this year, often to the benefit of Ukraine-skeptical forces. A change of leadership is also possible in the United States. Depending on the outcomes of these elections, support for Ukraine could erode. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, who currently holds the rotating presidency in the European Union, has called on the organization to ease up on its assistance to Ukraine. 

Orbán argues that Europe has spent too much money aiding the Eastern European state, and he has called for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, former U.S. president Donald Trump has also said that the United States is spending too much on Ukraine aid. He has also claimed that he would end the Russian invasion of Ukraine in a day and force the Ukrainians into negotiations with the Russians. With the possibility of forced peace negotiation on the horizon, Ukraine might be positioning itself to gain leverage for future bargaining.

In short, the situation in Kursk is changing quickly. The Russians have yet to respond forcefully, and the Ukrainians have shown once again that Russia possesses many chinks in its armor. Ukrainian forces have launched a high-stakes gamble, and it is still unclear how events in Kursk will unfold.

Time will tell how this offensive proceeds. But for now, the Ukrainian risk is paying off.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky.

Image: Volodymyr Vorobiov / Shutterstock.com.