Summary and 4 Key Points You Need to Know: Ukraine's acquisition of a few older F-16 fighter jets is unlikely to change the trajectory of the war against Russia. The Ukrainian pilots' limited training on these advanced aircraft, combined with the small number of jets promised, makes their effectiveness questionable.

-Without sufficient air cover, past efforts like deploying the M1 Abrams tanks have faltered.

-The F-16s may face the same fate, especially given Russia's overwhelming air presence and Ukraine's lack of experience with these jets.

-While the arrival of F-16s sends a political signal of Western support, it does little to address the strategic challenges Ukraine faces.

A Handful of Old F-16s to Ukraine Will Make Little Difference

A handful of older F-16s have been promised to Ukraine. They are set to arrive, with upgrades, soon. But the probability that a handful of aging F-16s will make a significant difference against the hulking Russian invasion force in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea is ridiculous. 

Just as with the tanks that were given to Ukraine by NATO, the F-16s will be met with much fanfare, and then get systematically destroyed. Ukraine’s military is not well trained to fly the American F-16 into combat. Further, Ukrainian strategists likely won’t know how to use them effectively.

Because the Ukrainians are not well-versed in F-16s, their tactics will be two-dimensional. Ukraine will lack the basic knowledge to operate the planes, which will be problematic if they all get shot down – and they will. 

A Lack of Training on F-16

Ukrainian pilots are not being given the usual three-year training period on the F-16. They’ve been given a streamlined training, and it won’t end well. 

Ukraine wants to use its F-16s as air cover for tanks. For example, the Ukrainians have lost an inordinate number of the M1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) they received from the United States partly because they used them without air cover. Abrams are built to work jointly with air power, not separately. 

Irrespective of getting the F-16s, the Americans are promising a handful of them, while the Russians are throwing their entire military into the fray. The F-16s in question will not last very long, especially as they are piloted by Ukrainians who lack the requisite training and experience in flying these birds. 

Ukraine also wants to use the F-16s to attack Russian warplanes that have been harassing Ukrainian forces since the start of the war. But dogfighting is going to prove problematic. There’s a reason that the Ukrainians have not ever been able to achieve air dominance over the Russians. 

Again, the number of F-16s being given to Ukraine is miniscule compared to what the Russians are throwing up at the Ukrainians in the unfriendly skies. But it makes everyone in the West feel good that they’re “doing something,” I suppose. Heaven forbid we try to end the war peacefully.

The Ukrainians think against all logic that a handful of F-16s will deter Russia in the air. But the more important aspect of the F-16s for Ukraine is the political signal it sends to the world. It shows that there is no daylight between the Western alliance and Ukraine. This complicates efforts at peace, given the Moscow went to war in part because of its perception that Kyiv was moving too close to alliance with the West.

Stop Escalating

Then there’s the whole supply chain problem. F-16s are not simple jets. Sure, they’re not as complex as the F-35 Lightning II or the F-22 Raptor. But they’re sophisticated fourth-generation warplanes. Keeping these foreign-built jets operational will require a secure supply chain, which is definitely not guaranteed.

In terms of security risks to NATO, even though the F-16s are older, they are being upgraded with updated NATO technology to help them perform their missions better. If these birds are destined for destruction, the Russians will certainly capture some of them and learn whatever technological secrets NATO is installing in the older birds to make them more combat effective. 

An Unwinnable War 

The issue facing Ukraine is not that they need air cover for tanks and they need airpower to assert dominance in the skies. Both Ukraine and Russia are continuing the war at great cost when there is no strategic pathway forward to victory. Kyiv should stop wasting its time trying to escalate its way out of this conflict. 

There is no strategic pathway to victory. A handful of F-16s will be more trouble than they’re worth. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

From the Vault

Russia Freaked Out: Why the U.S. Navy 'Unretired' the Iowa-Class Battleships

Battleship vs. Battlecruiser: Iowa-Class vs. Russia's Kirov-Class (Who Wins?)