Summary and Key Points: Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk region is a strategic gamble, but given its situation, the move appears sound. Despite being vastly outmatched in size, population, and resources by Russia, Ukraine has shown resilience with significant backing from NATO and especially Poland. Poland, with NATO's third-largest military, has been a key ally, providing military and humanitarian aid while hosting nearly a million Ukrainian refugees. Historical tensions, such as the Volhynia massacre and recent grain disputes, have caused friction, but overall, Polish-Ukrainian relations remain strong. With unwavering resolve and continued Western support, Ukraine's chances of success are improving.

Ukraine’s Bold Kursk Move: Will Polish Support Ensure Success?

Was Ukraine’s offensive into Russia’s Kursk region a good idea?  If the decision to do so was Ukraine’s, then the answer is yes.  

It is Ukraine that was invaded by Russia, and it is Ukrainians who are fighting to defend not only their sovereign territory but also that of their NATO and European Union (EU) friends.   

Does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a winning offensive against Russia? That remains to be seen. Russia is the largest country by landmass, two times larger than the second-largest country, Canada. By contrast, Ukraine ranks forty-fifth by landmass.

Russia has a population of around 145 million while Ukraine’s population is just under 38 million. Russia’s economy has been beset by Western sanctions, but it is still growing. Ukraine has always been the underdog in this conflict, however, Ukraine has consistently defied the odds, as has its neighbor, Poland. 

Despite not being the largest member of NATO or one of its longer-standing members, having only joined in 2004, Poland has NATO’s third-largest military, behind the United States and Turkey. Poland spends more than 4 percent of its GDP on defense, more than any other NATO member.  

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Poland has sent Ukraine more than forty military assistance packages worth more than $4 billion in total. Further, Poland’s Rzeszów-Jasionka airport has become a main conduit for military supplies from the West to Ukraine. 

In July of this year, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, signed a security agreement which, among other things, commits Poland to supporting Ukraine, according to the terms of the agreement, for the next decade. 

Poland has provided Ukraine with meaningful military assistance. It has also provided it with unprecedented humanitarian assistance.  

While Poland was not a net emigration country for decades prior, following Poland’s accession to the EU in 2004, Poland became a net immigration country – even before Russia’s full-scale invasion, when an astonishing 2 million Ukrainian refugees entered Poland during the first month of the war.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of August, there were estimated to be 6.7 million Ukrainian refugees worldwide. Germany was estimated to be hosting just over 1 million Ukrainian refugees while Poland was estimated to be hosting just under 1 million. 

In July, Poland passed a law that extends special privileges for Ukrainian refugees until September 30, 2025. These special privileges have and continue to include access to Polish housing, Poland’s labor market, Polish schools, and Poland’s healthcare and welfare systems. More than half of Poland’s schools have Ukrainian refugee students. Ukrainian refugee students constitute around 3 percent of the students in Polish schools. 

Further, if the children of Ukrainian migrants who arrived in Poland before 2022 are included, Ukrainian refugees and migrant students constitute close to 4 percent of the students in Polish schools. 

Polish-Ukrainian relations are not perfect. There are some historical grievances that date to World War II, such as the massacre of upwards of 100,000 Poles by Ukrainians in the Ukrainian area of Volhynia. Poland’s government has said that Ukraine’s government must appropriately recognize the massacre if Ukraine is to join the EU. 

Additionally, there have been ongoing grain disputes between Poland and other countries that neighbor Ukraine following the diversion of Ukrainian grain shipments from the Black Sea to Europe. On the whole, however, Polish-Ukrainian relations are strong. Poland has provided Ukraine with immense material and emotional support, while Russia has underestimated not only Ukraine’s strength but also the strength of its friends, like Poland. 

Does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a winning offensive against Russia? A calculation that includes Ukrainian will and Polish humanity, alongside a policy change that allows Ukrainians to use the military equipment they have received from the West to their full extent, would seem to tilt the odds in Ukraine’s favor.    

About the Author

Jennifer Wistrand is the Deputy Director of the Kennan Institute which is a part of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.   

Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.