What You Need to Know: China recently conducted its largest military drill around Taiwan, sending 125 combat aircraft and deploying warships and drones, simulating a potential blockade around the island. This latest show of force follows a series of Chinese provocations, raising concerns over escalating tensions.

-Although China professes a desire for peaceful reunification, its growing military investments signal a readiness for armed conflict. Taiwan condemned the drill but acknowledged its own robust defensive capabilities.

-However, an actual invasion would test Taiwan's limits and hinge on U.S. intervention. A conflict over Taiwan could pull in NATO, Japan, South Korea, and other U.S. allies, risking a broad Indo-Pacific conflict.

China Sends Record 125 Combat Aircraft Near Taiwan: Escalation or Message?

Several weeks ago, the Chinese military sent 125 combat aircraft around Taiwan. That is a record number of Chinese military aircraft against the island nation.

The show of force is yet another incident of aggression aimed at Taiwan and signifies the continued escalation of tensions between the two countries.

A Simulated Blockade of Taiwan by China? 

The Chinese aircraft operated in six blocks of airspace around the island nation.

The Chinese military drills involved more than just fighter jets and bombers. In addition to the combat aircraft, the Chinese military threw warships, coast guard vessels, and unmanned aerial systems around Taiwan. The goal and the message of the exercise were clear: Beijing could use military force to surround Taiwan and impose a blockade.

Taipei condemned the Chinese military aggression, calling the exercise an unreasonable provocation. However, the military drill was just the latest in a series of dangerous Chinese military activities right on Taiwan’s doorstep.

Earlier in the year, the Chinese armed forces had conducted a similar, but smaller, exercise with air and naval assets around Taiwan. And in 2022, following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the Chinese military launched a large-scale, live-fire drill around Taiwan as a way to express its dissatisfaction.

Although Beijing has repeatedly stated that it is seeking a peaceful reunification with Taipei, over the past few years, China has been steadily increasing the military build-up and activity around Taiwan. It is becoming clear that military action is an option for the Chinese leadership. The Chinese Communist Party is overall spending more on its armed forces, and the Chinese military’s budget (public and covert) is even coming close to that of the United States.

In the event of a whole-scale Chinese invasion, the Taiwanese military would be hard put. However, as the ongoing example of Ukraine has shown to the world—and Beijing—smaller countries can fight back against their larger neighbors. The Taiwanese military has robust air and ground capabilities that could inflict heavy losses on a Chinese invading force. But the 125 combat aircraft used in the latest Chinese exercise would be a drop in the water in an actual invasion as Beijing would put all its forces to the task.

A lot hinges on what the U.S. would do. The U.S. is not obliged to act with military force in the event of a Chinese invasion. But that doesn’t mean it can’t use military force. If Washington decides that Taiwan is worth a war with China, then there would be wider conflict in the Indo-Pacific, with several U.S. partners and allies joining in the fight. NATO, Australia, South Korea, and Japan are very likely or certainly to join the fight. Although the Chinese military has been investing in weapon systems to counter the power of the U.S. Navy and its carrier strike groups, it would be hard to defeat the U.S. and its allies.

No one wants a wider conflict between China and the West. It would be economically disastrous for both sides, and the specter of nuclear conflict is enough to make everyone mightily uncomfortable.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense and national security journalist specializing in special operations. A Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), he holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University, an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is pursuing a J.D. at Boston College Law School. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.