In early October 2024, Ukrainian intelligence announced that several thousand North Korean soldiers had begun training in Russia. The South Korean government and the United States corroborated the report. Then, on November 5, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that Ukrainian forces had had their first encounter with the North Koreans. By the second week in November, speculation mounted that the Russians were preparing a counter-offensive against Ukrainian troops in Kursk that would include the same North Korean forces. 

On the one hand, the deployment of the North Korean troops seems a logical follow-up to the mutual defense treaty signed by Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang in June. On the other hand, it raises a series of important questions. 

What will be the impact of the deployment on Russia’s war effort? What does it say about the North Korean-Russian relationship? What are the implications for the Korean peninsula and Russo-Chinese relationship? 

The treaty signed in June states that North Korea and Russia “shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” if one party “is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states.”

Given Russia’s battlefield losses and Putin’s current unwillingness to initiate a general mobilization, the North Korean contingent is a much-needed and welcome addition to Moscow’s war efforts. Yet, while clearly a short-term boost, 10,000 troops will not fill the longer-term manpower gaps.

We don’t know exactly what the North Koreans are getting in return. In the first instance, Russia is reportedly paying Pyongyang $2,000 per month for each soldier. More importantly, speculation centers on the provisions of a Russian satellite and advanced conventional weapons to North Korea. But, it should not be ruled out that Russia might be willing to help Kim upgrade his country’s missile and nuclear weapons delivery systems. Such a move could potentially destabilize the Korean peninsula if Kim Jong-un decided to act aggressively against South Korea.

Until the North Korean deployment, the Moscow-Beijing axis seemed solid and getting stronger. China supports Russia’s efforts in Ukraine and shares Putin’s goal of creating a new non-U.S.-led international order. At the same time, China has proposed itself as a mediator between the two combatants, as underscored by the final communique of the recent BRICS summit in Kazan. The statement read, “We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.”

The Chinese response to the burgeoning North Korean-Russian alliance has thus far been muted. Pyongyang has always been a prickly client for Beijing, and one might speculate that its enhanced Russian ties could erode Chinese influence and provide Kim Jong-un with more room for maneuver. Nevertheless, no one is predicting a significant rupture between Beijing and Pyongyang. 

On a global scale, the presence of North Korean troops in Russia fighting Ukraine signifies a major escalation and internationalization. In response, Seoul has said it will consider transferring weapons directly to Ukraine. President Joe Biden has also permitted Ukraine to fire U.S.-made ballistic missiles into Russian territory. Perhaps most importantly, Beijing is worried that a possible increase in tension on the Korean Peninsula could lead to a more extensive U.S. presence in the region.

The wide-ranging implications discussed above could lead in several directions. Are these North Korean troops merely a first wave? If North Korea backfills Russian manpower needs going forward, what would Moscow provide in return? 

Given Seoul’s unease and Beijing’s queasiness, will Moscow be circumspect about what equipment or technologies it provides Pyongyang? 

A final unknown is the policies of the incoming Trump administration. 

Vladimir Putin seems intent on retaking Kursk and furthering Russian advances in the Donbas before January 20. If President-elect Donald Trump can foist a peace deal on Ukraine, probably solidifying these new Russian territorial gains, then the question of the North Korean troops becomes moot. 

If, however, the war drags on, the alliance between Russia and North Korea could grow stronger, unnerving Seoul and Beijing, as well as the United States. As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte wrote, “These deepening military and economic ties between a reckless Russia and an emboldened North Korea don’t just threaten Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security, they are deeply dangerous for global security.” 

About the Author:

Carol R. Saivetz is a Senior Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is also a Research Associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute. She is currently teaching Russian Foreign Policy in the Political Science Department at MIT. Her research centers on Russian policy toward the other post-Soviet states and the Middle East. 

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