Last week, the Russian military launched a new munition against Ukraine. Soon after the explosion, contradictory reports began emerging as to the identity of the munition and its capabilities.   

Codenamed Oreshnik, the Russian munition is dangerous but not as much as the Kremlin would like. Moreover, it is unlikely that the Russian military has many Oreshnik missiles in reserve.   

The Oreshnik Munition   

“On November 21, 2024, Russia targeted a Ukrainian munitions factory in Dnipro with the first ever operational use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), codenamed Oreshnik,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the conflict.   

The Russian munition didn’t cause a lot of damage but took the Ukrainian forces by surprise. Indeed, initially, the Ukrainians thought it was an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM).  

An IRBM has a range of between 1,800 to 3,400 miles. Although it doesn’t possess the destructive capabilities of an ICBM which can paired with a nuclear warhead to reign nuclear destruction thousands of miles away and across continents, an IRBM is a powerful munition.   

In this case, the Russian military launched the Oreshnik from 500 miles away.   

“Russia announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty in February 2019, which banned the development and production of IRBMs. However, the development of Oreshnik almost certainly occurred before this,” the British Military Intelligence added, directly accusing Russia of violating the international nuclear treaty.   

The new Russian munition is very likely a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile.   

“The missile payload was observed as six groups of six warheads, for a total of thirty-six submunitions. These submunitions travel at hypersonic speeds greater than Mach five [around 3,900 miles per hour] before impact, as is typical for a missile of this class,” the British Military Intelligence stated.  

Similar to its larger ICBM siblings, IRBMs travel at hypersonic speeds when they reenter the atmosphere and are quite difficult to intercept.   

“The use of this experimental system against Ukraine was almost certainly intended as strategic messaging following the use by Ukraine of Western missiles into Russia,” the British Military Intelligence stated.   

Following the deployment of approximately 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast, Russia, in support of the Russian military, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom allowed the Ukrainian military to use long-range munitions inside Russia, but only in Kursk Oblast, where the Ukrainian military has a salient since August.   

The Ukrainian military can now use MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles against high-value targets in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian military has already struck and destroyed advanced weapon systems, including an S-400 Triumph air defense system.  

However, the Ukrainian military doesn’t have the authority to target Russian military targets outside the Kursk Oblast as of yet.   

“Russia highly likely only has a handful of Oreshnik missiles, which are yet to enter serial production. This missile is highly likely to be far more expensive than other missiles Russia is currently using against Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.   

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. 

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