The tactical situation in Ukraine continues to be serious for the Ukrainian forces. Despite extremely heavy losses, the Russian forces are making tactical progress along several parts of the contact line.  

On the other side, the Ukrainian military seems unable to stop the slow but steady Russian tactical advances. Specifically, units on the frontline lack men and munitions to hold back the human wave attacks the Russian military is hurling at them. 

Trouble in the Donbas  

 “In Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces have made rapid advances towards the eastern flank of Velyka Novosilka. The town has been situated on the front line since 2022 and has acted as a lynchpin of Ukraine’s defensive line,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent operational estimate of the conflict.  

The Ukrainian forces are hard-put right now. Units and men are stretched thin in an attempt to hold the line within Ukraine while also maintaining a presence inside Russia, in Kursk Oblast, to draw Russian forces and resources away from Ukraine.  

In the summer of 2023, the Ukrainian military solidified its presence around Velyka Novosilka when it regained some territory south of the town as part of the large-scale counter-offensive. Kyiv’s goal was to punch through the Russian defenses, reach the Crimean Peninsula, and sever the Russian land bridge in southern Ukraine.  

“Velyka Novosilka is now vulnerable to Russian attacks due to the loss of Vuhledar, thirty kilometers to the east, in early October 2024,” the British Military Intelligence stated.  

“This enabled increased Russian advances into less well-defended areas in Western Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are attacking behind established Ukrainian defenses and threatening the primary logistics routes to the town,” the British Military Intelligence concluded. 

If the town falls, the Ukrainian military’s hold in Donetsk Oblast, and Donbas more generally, would be seriously frustrated. The town is a key logistical point in the Ukrainian defensive line that can support both offensive and defensive operations.  

The Ukrainian military lacks sufficient munitions to stop the Russian tactical progress. To put it into context, the Russian military can fire a lot more munitions against the Ukrainians, often ten times as much.  

Russian Casualties  

The Russian tactical gains don’t come cheap. The Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces continue to take extremely heavy losses daily. 

For example, over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian forces lost almost 1,800 men killed or wounded. In addition, the Russian forces lost approximately sixty tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, thirty-one unmanned aerial systems, twenty-three artillery systems, multiple launch rocket systems, twenty-two infantry fighting vehicles, eight pieces of special equipment, eight main battle tanks, three cruise missiles, and armored personnel carriers. 

In total, the Russian forces have lost almost 750,000 men in just over 1,000 days of fighting. With the current rate of casualties, the Kremlin will close the year with almost 800,000 losses. The conflict is already the deadliest on European soil since World War Two. But at the current rate, it has the potential to be one of the deadliest in recent history.  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. 

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