The Russian military continues to make gradual tactical gains on the battlefield, threatening important Ukrainian points on the contact line.  

Advancing on Three Axes  

The Russian military leadership continues to throw most of its troops and resources into the fighting that is taking place in the Donetsk Oblast, in eastern Ukraine.  

“Most Russian advances in recent weeks have been centered on three areas, the Pokrovsk axis, the Kurakhove axis, and the Velyka Novosilka axis, all in Donetsk oblast, in south-eastern Ukraine and closely connected,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest operational estimate of the fighting in Ukraine.  

On the Pokrovsk axis, the Russian forces have made gradual gains towards the urban center. As we have previously analyzed here at The National Interest, Pokrovsk is a key logistical hub that can support both offensive and defensive operations. It is a key point in the Ukrainian line of defense.  

“Russian forces are likely fighting within the center of Kurakhove. Kurakhove forms an important section of the front line and its seizure would allow Russian forces to consolidate positions in the area and set conditions for further advances westwards,” the British Military Intelligence added.  

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly mounted a limited counter-attack to the north of Velyka Novosilka, a retaking the village of Novyy Komar from Russian forces,” the British Military Intelligence stated.  

Through these limited counter-offensives, the Ukrainian forces are trying to keep the Russian attacks off balance and delay further tactical progress. However, without the men and resources, these counterattacks are simply buying Kyiv time.  

“Despite this, Russian efforts to cut off the supply routes on the northern approach of Velyka Novosilka and encircle the town continue. Russian forces are also pushing towards Velyka Novosilka from the south, recently capturing the village of Blahodante,” the British Military Intelligence concluded in its operational estimate.  

Russian Casualties  

Of course, the Russian tactical gains don’t come cheap. 

On the contrary, Moscow can make these gains because of its willingness to sacrifice men and heavy weapon systems. This attritional strategy has seen Russian casualties skyrocket to more than 750,000, according to the latest data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. (Western intelligence services and militaries have frequently corroborated these data.)  

The Russian forces are taking extremely heavy casualties daily. For example, over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost almost 1,500 men killed or wounded. 

In addition, they lost approximately thirty-six infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, twenty-nine unmanned aerial systems, seventeen tactical vehicles, and fuel trucks, five main battle tanks, three artillery systems and multiple launch rocket systems, two pieces of special equipment, and one air defense battery destroyed or damaged. 

These material losses are quite light compared to other days when the Russian forces lose more than 200 heavy weapon systems and tactical vehicles in a single day.  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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