President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s recent comments about his apparent desire to “purchase” Greenland and possibly Canada have sparked a firestorm throughout the world. While these comments may have been simple negotiation tactics to secure better trade deals (especially from Canada), the fact of the matter is that Trump has highlighted a real geopolitical crisis unfolding for the United States in its own proverbial backyard of the Arctic.
The reality is that, for years since the end of the Cold War, Washington has ignored the Arctic, allowing for its strategic rivals to slowly but surely gobble up larger and larger amounts of the region.
Russia Claimed the Arctic in 2008
Go back to 2008, when Barack Obama was on his historic rise to the White House. Back then, Russia was in the geopolitical hotseat as they had invaded their neighbor of Georgia, which had been seeking to become closer to the United States, the European Union (EU), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
While Washington was fixated on that crisis—which was fundamentally a typical Eurasian territorial dispute between two local powers which should never have consumed U.S. foreign policy bandwidth—Moscow released a new strategy document.
That strategy document outlined Moscow’s intentions to dominate the Arctic by 2020. As part of this strategic plan for polar conquest, Russia invested heavily in creating icebreakers to help their ships maneuver through the thick ice of the region. Russia then invested vast wealth into restoring its nearly abandoned Soviet-era military facilities throughout the region.
Meanwhile, the Russians started building up key infrastructure along their massive Arctic coastline as part of a grand plan to create the Northern Sea Route, meant as a Russian-dominated alternative to the Suez Canal.
All these moves by Russia went basically unnoticed by Washington, as the Americans became consumed by the wars in the Mideast, Russian moves in Europe, and the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific. Closer to home, they ignored the fact that its actual near-abroad was slowly being gobbled up by Russia. Today, thanks to Moscow’s purported “friendship without limits” with China, Russia is now helping China move into the Arctic, and Beijing has declared itself to be a “Near-Arctic” power.
Russia’s Nuclear Icebreakers
After nearly a decade of ignoring Russia’s silent conquest of the Arctic, the Americans are finally awake, and have announced that they would be taking the vital first steps toward restoring US primacy in the Arctic. That first step was to purchase new icebreakers. America has not built a new icebreaker for more than 25 years. Compare that with Russia’s growing fleet of icebreakers, operated by Rosatomflot, a subsidiary of the Russian state nuclear company. In 2022, the Russian government signed a contract with the Russian firm to purchase a sixth-and-seventh nuclear-powered pair of icebreakers.
The vessels are intended for deliveries to Russia in December 2028 and December of 2030. Russia currently has four nuclear icebreakers, with a fifth one set to hit the frigid seas of the High North in December of 2026. The United States’ fleet not only is ancient when compared to Russia’s, but neither of the boats in America’s icebreaker fleet are nuclear-powered.
America’s Delayed (Failing) Polar Security Cutter Program
Indeed, High North News reported in 2023 that the new Polar Security Cutter that had been under construction by Bollinger Mississippi Shipbuilding had been delayed until 2027—meaning that now the Coast Guard will not get its militarized icebreaker until the 2030s. The new American icebreaker had been scheduled for an initial build date in 2021 and an ultimate deployment in the first half of 2024.
By the time High North News was doing its reportage on the matter in 2023, construction on the Polar Security Cutter had not yet begun, leaving an uncertain completion date—and leaving the Coast Guard (and the United States) in the lurch.
Overall, the United States Congress authorized six new non-nuclear icebreakers to be built, with three in development. All the proposed icebreakers are behind schedule, meaning the United States now has a critical capabilities gap in the Arctic compared to the Russians.
To fill in the gap, the Coast Guard recently purchased its first civilian icebreaker. But these civilian icebreakers are wholly inadequate compared to the level of resources and capabilities that the Russians have committed to dominating the High North. And the Canadians, the other nation that is affected by Russia’s rise in the High North, is even worse shape.
In fact, for decades, Washington has striven to secure its hold over the Northwest Passage, a sea route that cuts across the Canadian and Alaska coastlines in the Arctic and would serve as a rival Russia’s growing Northern Sea Route. But Ottawa has resisted Washington’s attempts to control that region—all while Canada has done nothing to secure it on their own.
America is Losing the High North
Icebreakers form a crucial component for any nation seeking to operate in the Arctic. These great ships allow for the country or corporation using them to create open pathways through the ice that other ships, such as warships or merchant vessels, can then use. Without these systems, human operations in the High North would be impossible. The Americans are losing the Arctic to the Russians.
That’s why President-Elect Trump is talking about absorbing Canada and purchasing Greenland. By doing so, it’s a step in the direction of asserting greater US hold over the Arctic and a chance to counter the Russian presence there.
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
