Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has garnered a sixteen-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in a new nationwide poll, his widest lead of the election cycle.

A CNN poll released Tuesday reported Biden with 57 percent of support among likely voters, while 41 percent back Trump. The last version of the same poll, conducted before the first presidential debate in late August and early September surveyed registered voters and discovered an eight-point lead for the former vice-president, 51 to 43 percent.

The survey, conducted before the first presidential debate and amid the president’s positive coronavirus test results, revealed that Biden was also ahead on key voter issues including Supreme Court nominations (57 to 41 percent), health care (59 to 39 percent) and the coronavirus (59 to 38 percent).

Although the lead is eye-catching, pollsters and skeptics refer to then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s polling record in the 2016 presidential election against Trump. According to the RealClearPolitics nationwide polling average in 2016, Clinton held nearly a five-point lead over the president just days before the election—obviously, that’s not how the results turned out.  

At the beginning of October 2016—nearly a month before the election—Clinton held a fourteen-point lead over Trump in a poll conducted by NBC News-Wall Street Journal. For many, Biden’s lead can be deemed distrusted as Clinton was brutally defeated in yet another polarized election season. 

While this may be true, it’s “important to recognize that the 2020 race has not generally mirrored the race in 2016. It’s important to recognize that Trump is now in a much worse position than he was four years ago, parallels aside,” The Washington Post’s Philip Bump wrote. 

During the last few months leading up to the 2016 election, Clinton’s advantage over Trump fluctuated. At some times, she was ahead by five, seven and even eleven points, but at other moments, Trump rallied a narrow advantage by gripping a tie or achieving a lead of two to four points. Four years later, Biden has maintained a more consistent margin over the president, as there’s only been one general election poll when Trump had a one-point advantage—or any lead at all—that was conducted in early September. 

“The stability of the margins in the 2020 race have been remarkable even in the context of the last five elections,” Bump noted. “In 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016, there was at some point a tie in the polling average in the last 150 days of the race.”

During the last 150 days of the election race, Biden and Trump haven’t reached a tie in terms of the nationwide polling average. Biden’s wide margin, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, has never been lower than four percent or larger than 11.8 percent. Trump’s average voter support has never surpassed 45.6 percent, while Biden’s average voter support has never hit lower than 46.8 percent. 

According to the RealClearPolitics nationwide polling average in 2016, Trump’s voting support peaked at 45.7 percent, while Clinton’s reached as low as 43.1 percent.

The data reveals a larger gap between Biden and Trump than Clinton and Trump from four years ago. 

While it still remains somewhat unclear of what happened in 2016, Bump noted that “there was a much bigger pool of undecided voters,” as the 2015 election season offered stronger third-party candidates. 

Another factor that likely interfered with the final election results is that Clinton earned less approval and favorability than Biden. The former vice-president has also maintained a more robust lead in key voter groups that Clinton didn’t rally widespread support from, including women and those sixty-five years old and older. 

Although Biden has a sizable lead over the president, crucial, battleground states will likely decide the fate of the election—a race that remains tight and unpredictable with less than thirty days until election day. 

The CNN poll was conducted Oct. 1–4 among 1,205 adults, including 1,001 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent overall and a plus or minus 3.6 percent margin of error for likely voters.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.

Image: Reuters