Would Russia have China’s blessing or tacit support for an invasion of Ukraine? That question was posed to Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby by reporters wondering about the global geopolitical climate as many brace for a Russian attack. 

Kirby offered no specifics regarding any kind of collaborative relationship between Russia and China, however, he did make a specific point to reference a Russian-Chinese joint statement of support in February of this year.   

“(Russia and China’s) February 4 joint statement certainly provided further evidence that China has decided that they're going to stand alongside Russia with respect to what's going on in Europe,” Kirby said on Monday. “And we would say that (China’s) tacit support, if you will, for Russia is deeply alarming. And frankly, even more destabilizing to the security situation in Europe.”

Russia and China have undertaken some military-to-military cooperation, including joint exercises and visits in recent years. The true extent of any kind of military-specific partnership remains unknown, though. Chinese support for Russia, even without a formal alliance, would be certain to raise concerns at the Pentagon. 

Extending this further, should China directly or implicitly imply an alliance with Russian expansionist aims, it could shift the power balance to a certain degree. Looking purely at sheer numbers, available hardware, manpower, and air assets in particular, there are a variety of ways in which any kind of force-on-force comparison might favor NATO. 

While Russia is reported by Global Firepower to operate as many as 12,000 tanks, numbers of armored vehicles alone do not necessarily translate military superiority. Russian tanks would face an opponent with superior targeting technologies, weapons range and sensors against a smaller NATO force. Also, if Russia were able to establish ground combat superiority, it is less likely that Russian fighter jets could rival U.S. and NATO fifth-generation aircraft such as F-35s. 

Regardless of joint public statements on solidarity and military cooperation, it remains highly unlikely that China would intervene on behalf of Russia in a conflict.

Kris Osborn is the Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master's Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters.