Donald Trump has a fresh conspiracy theory. “It looks to me like he’s trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected, I don’t know,” Trump told Fox News Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Friday morning. “I think he’s going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates.”

The ”he” is, of course, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. When Powell assumed the position—he was appointed by Trump in 2017 and renominated by President Joe Biden in 2021—there was no shortage of doubts about his ability to handle the job. Trump did not share them. He himself declared at the time that what was required was "strong, sound and steady leadership at the Federal Reserve" and that Powell would "provide exactly that type of leadership."

That was then. Now Trump is alleging that Powell is in the tank for Biden. Why Powell would be trying to ensure a Biden term is left unsaid. There’s no evidence that Powell is trying to stack the deck for Biden. Instead of lowering interest rates this month, the Federal Reserve held steady in order to assess further the strength of inflation. It’s indicated that it may lower interest rates this year, but it’s not a certainty. Should inflation continue to subside, there’s no reason the Fed should not lower rates—unless the very strength of the Biden economy persuades it to adopt a more cautious posture.

Rather than engage with reality, Trump is doing what he has always done—turn on a former appointee of his (see: John Kelly, John Bolton and so on) and portray himself as a victim. As Sidney Blumenthal notes in the Guardian, Trump has “perfected the art of inverted victimhood.”

In this instance, Trump’s demagoguery is also a tell. It suggests that he is worried about something. What’s worrying him is the prowess of the Biden economy.

The latest jobs number indicate that the economy isn’t in good shape. It’s in fantastic condition. In January, employers added 353,000 jobs. Hourly earnings increased 0.6 percent. The unemployment rate is at 3.7 percent. Inflation is falling. The stock market is at record highs. And consumer confidence has reached its highest level since December 2021. All the evidence is that the Fed got it right in raising interest rates and ensuring what looks to be the softest of soft landings.

The strength of the Joe Biden economy will be the president’s strongest political weapon this year. Trump recognizes that. But Biden is also targeting Trump, referring to him as Donald Herbert Hoover Trump. He has a point. Under Trump the economy lost 2.9 million jobs. His claim to fame is that he has the worst jobs record of any modern president. It was just Covid. Manufacturing, transportation and mining all took a dive under Trump. His claim to economic success isn’t wrong; it’s risible.

Maybe Trump should listen to his former economic advisor Larry Kudlow. Speaking on Fox News on Thursday, he issued a“mea culpa.” He noted, “I was wrong about the slowdown and recession. So was the entire forecasting fraternity.” Is Trump listening? Or is Kudlow now part of the conspiracy against him as well?

About the Author

Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators, coming next month.

Image Credit: Shutterstock.