In 1863, Confederate General Robert E. Lee had a daring idea: move into western Pennsylvania, weaken northern morale, and potentially even strike Washington, D.C. But the attack stalled, ultimately being repulsed at the Battle of Gettysburg, which became known as the “high-water mark” of the Confederacy. 

The Russo-Ukrainian War was far different from the American Civil War, and Ukraine was, of course, not anything morally resembling the Confederate States of America. Unfortunately for Ukraine, their recent incursion north into Kursk bears striking resemblances to Lee’s ill-fated attempt. 

Before the incursion, the war was simply not going well for Ukraine, whilst they had significant early successes in the conflict, most notably the Battle for Kyiv and the late 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive, 2023 saw the war become something of a stalemate. But 2024 has borne witness to Russia slowly, but surely, making gains. Those gains have been small, and Russian success is measured by kilometers at a time – but it is objectively success. As a result, even strong allies across the West, including prominent staunchly pro-Ukraine Democrats, were starting to loudly murmur about the need for peace and were expressing frustration with the lack of any sign of negotiations. 

The Kursk attack has silenced those murmurs; Ukraine seems to be on the upswing, and no ally will speak up against it now. Ukraine reportedly wants to use the land it has seized as a bargaining chip to get back its land, and analysts are arguing Vladimir Putin’s days may be numbered. Putin has been relatively silent about the attack – surely something must be afoot in the Kremlin, or so goes the argument. 

However, the idea that this attack in any way hurts Putin is difficult to accept. Ukraine has not taken the city of Kursk; they have merely taken some, mostly rural, parts of the oblast, or region of Kursk. The largest town they have taken as of this writing is Sudzha, which has just over 6,000 people. Much of the territory they have captured is empty fields. Even if they manage to take Kursk proper – a highly unlikely, though not impossible prospect – it is a city with less than 500,000 people and one that is not significant to the Kremlin’s plans. 

Which is why this will not threaten Putin. In 2023, rogue general Yevgeny Prigozhin made it to Moscow Oblast; Putin was unaffected. He will certainly be unaffected by this attack. Yes, it is certainly an embarrassment, but to Putin, it likely registers as nothing more than an annoyance. 

The idea that he will break down and negotiate with Ukraine is a fantasy; the Kremlin needs not to rush to such ends. Russia has plenty of poor males it can forcibly conscript, whereas Ukraine is running out of them. They will simply wait and slowly take their land back, inch by inch, throwing as many men into the field as necessary.

When they’re done, the situation will look even worse for Ukraine than when it started: Ukraine will have lost men, used up arms, and gained nothing. Russia will, in the meantime, have slowly continued chipping away at Ukraine’s territory in the south, as it is now doing. 

Lee’s invasion of the North looked like a stroke of genius too. Had you told Confederates in early 1863 that their army would be in Pennsylvania later that year, they would have cheered. But they likely would have clammed up at hearing it would be their high water mark. 

About the Author: 

Anthony J. Constantini is a Contributing Fellow at Defense Priorities and a writer for Upward News. He holds a master’s in International Relations. 

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