How is Russia’s Navy faring amidst the war on Ukraine? The overall state of Russia’s military has been severely weakened by its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. For two years, Moscow has steadily lost huge swaths of military systems, munitions, and even troops in the war. From main battle tanks (MBTs) and airframes to air-defense systems and infantry fighting vehicles, Russia’s losses are hefty and simply unsustainable in the long run. In fact, over the summer, the head of the United Kingdom’s armed forces expressed that Russia had lost roughly half the combat effectiveness of its army alone. The head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency also reiterated that it would likely take Moscow between 5-10 years minimum to rebuilt the modern capabilities of its armed forces following the culmination of the war.

The Russian Navy Has a Problem 

The weakest component of Russia’s military apparatus is arguably its Navy. The Admiral Kuznetsov, a Soviet-era ship, remains the sole aircraft carrier of the Russian fleet and has remained dry docked for several years now.

While Moscow does possess formidable submarines and other warships, Ukraine has persistently damaged its Black Sea Fleet in attacks over the last year of warfare.

In September, Kyiv launched a barrage of long-range missile strikes and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks targeting a fleet headquarters in Sevastopol and other naval assets. Ukraine’s military detailed that at least 12 strikes on the Black Sea fleet headquarters were carried out, targeting weapons and equipment depots.

Following these attacks, Moscow removed three submarines, two frigates, five landing ships and a few smaller vessels from Sevastopol, indicating the effectiveness of Ukraine’s barrages. These forced moves also implicate Moscow logistically, since all these vessels had to be transported further from Ukraine to the eastern flank of the Black Sea. 

In November, Kyiv claimed that newer operations had led to the destruction of a total of 15 Russian naval vessels in addition to the damage of a dozen others in the Black Sea since the war began back in February 2022.

The Atlantic Council detailed additional impacts of Kyiv’s success in the Black Sea:

“Undeterred by Russian threats, the Ukrainian authorities declared a new “humanitarian maritime corridor” in early August that runs through Ukrainian waters in the northwestern Black Sea before hugging the coast close to NATO members Romania and Bulgaria. By early October, more than a dozen ships had successfully sailed from Ukrainian ports via the new blockade-breaking route. This maritime traffic represents an economic lifeline for Ukraine that can play a major role in the country’s ability to support itself in a long war.”

Already struggling financially to keep up with its war efforts while sanctioned heavily by the international community, Moscow would suffer further from any conflict erupting in the vicinity of its Black Sea coast. If Russia’s sea trade is interrupted, particularly its oil exports, the Kremlin could find itself in an even worse economic condition.

As the invasion rages on, Russia is just adding more time it will need in the aftermath to rebuild its military structure, forces and modern capabilities. 

About the Author: Maya Carlin 

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. 

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